Random Gleanings this week has Chris Beard & Jesse Hansford focusing on some of the mixed signals within the markets at present. To this point in the year, stock performance of the world’s largest companies have run away from the performance of smaller companies. One measure of inflation (Headline CPI) has cooled off dramatically from the highs ten months ago, while the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation has remained elevated and mostly flat for nearly a year and a half.
Beyond these divergent signals, the guys explain the concept of the stock market’s Earnings Yield and what history would suggest about where it sits currently. Then they close with a convergence… that being how market participants are now predicting rates to be higher for longer like the Fed has said they will be.
0:00 – Intro
0:20 – Cap-Weighted vs Equal-Weighted
4:14 – PCE vs CPI Inflation
6:27 – S&P Earnings Yield vs T-Bill
8:05 – Fed Funds Futures
9:50 – Summary & SUBSCRIBE!
#Inflation #Fed #SPY #rsp #SPX #qqq