In this week’s Random Gleanings Jesse Hansford and Chris Beard bring the BAD NEWS that markets have been BRUTAL in the last 30 days. In the past month the S&P 500 was down 11% and 10 of 11 sectors were negative anywhere between -6.25% and -19.9%, with the energy sector up a whopping 0.49%. There…
One month out from the Mid-Term Elections, Chris Beard & Jesse Hansford go to the charts for some historical perspective on the connection of MARKETS and POLITICS. It turns out there is a stronger correlation of the year in the presidential cycle to market expectations than there is evidence of one party having better performance.…
The Federal Reserve brought the market the 0.75% rate hike that was expected last week, but has moved away from the language of the “wait and see” approach from earlier in the year to a very hardline stance to crush inflation. Where the markets were interpreting things as more opportunistic from June to August, the…
Inflation is down… YEAH! Markets went down too… WHAT THE HECK!? The PP&W team talk the good news of headline inflation (#CPI) continuing to cool off, while tempering their excitement on this news based on the same day market ($SPX) reaction which was nasty. If a bad market day has you thinking it’s now time…
In this Random Gleanings Chris & Jesse are celebrating lower prices at the pump! Chris offers some history on how falling gas prices – or even stable gas prices – have historically had a very desirable correlation to the direction of inflation moving lower. With inflation being the scary headline du-jour, if inflation does begin…
Price at the pump has cooled off from it’s worst prices back in the early summer, but if you know where to look there are some signals that energy may still be challenging. Then there’s the JOLTS (Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey) number that we’ve been talking about the Fed wanting to see come…
In the 1967 Johnny Cash country romp, Jackson, June Carter dares Johnny to “Go play your hand you big-talkin’ man”. Markets are currently daring Jay Powell to do the same in Jackson (Hole, WY) this week. Carter’s dare though comes with a prediction for her “big-talkin” husband when she follows with, “Make a big fool…
2022 has brought volatility back to investors in a big way. If BUMPY described Q1 22, and SCARY described Q2, then RELIEF may describe Q3 to this point. BUT… Where do things go next? Chris and Jesse investigate what’s next approaching the question from both sides – the Bull Cases (Pros) and the Bear Cases…
This week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation number came in lower for July (8.5% YoY) versus June (9.1% YoY). Seeing this number begin to decline has certainly been welcome news for markets. However, the headline rate (8.5%) may not be telling the whole story on this battle to stymie inflation. Hear Chris and Jesse…
We’ve just experienced two quarters of negative GDP which has historically been a signal that we are in recession. Washington is telling us that we are NOT in recession. What’s the deal with that??? Chris and Jesse tackle this question along with sharing some thoughts on what’s happening in earnings season, what the Fed is…
